Demography moves through the education system like a wave, one year group at a time.

It announces itself years in advance. Few institutions can read their future this far ahead.

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In May this year, the Office for National Statistics counted 585,396 births in England and Wales in 2025, the fewest since 1977.

The fall is uneven. Luton and Pendle recorded England's highest fertility rate at 1.93. Cambridge: 0.87.

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The latest figure is a fifth below the 2012 peak, which reached Reception in 2016-17.

This group sat their 11+ exams in 2023-24 and are now in Years 9 and 10.

Cohorts behind it are smaller.

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The 2025 trough will not be seen at the school gate until September 2029-30, but will follow the same track, reaching 11+ in 2036-37 and sixth form in the 2040s.

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A primary head has four years' notice; a secondary head has eleven. 

Four years is time to prepare - but the class of 2030 has been counted.

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